Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2014

Are you surprised to hear the price of beer is going up?  The Portland Beer Price Index isn't.  Here are the numbers I gathered around Portland on the equinox:

• 6-packs: $9.69, up 3 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.58, down 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.97, up 6 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $5.21, down 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.64 up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.85, up 6 cents

It looks weird that the average bomber prices went down.  It has to do with the strange gyrations of Hopworks IPA bomber prices, which have seemed almost random the last few months.  The shelf price of that beer fell $2.50 at one place I survey.  So that's the price drop.

Everything else is going up in price.  $9 seems like a lot for a six-pack.  I feel like I'm usually finding something I can stand under $8 (and a couple lucky $6 finds recently).  But these are just the averages of a fixed set of Oregon beers.

Speaking of which, since Laurelwood Red is now a six-pack beer and no longer in bombers (hooray!), I replaced that bomber with Base Camp In-Tents IPL.  (That change would also have changed last quarter's numbers, so the up/down numbers above are apples-to-apples as if Base Camp was in last time.)  The only hiccup there is that QFC doesn't carry Base Camp right now, but it's a pretty popular supermarket beer these days so I hope they will figure it out pretty soon.  Consult the PBPI configuration page for more information on the makeup of the index.  See you in three months.

Portland Beer Price Index, First Half of 2014

What if they had a beer price index and nobody came?  Apparently nothing, since I skipped reporting the PBPI for the spring quarter of 2014, and no one called me on it at all.  I did gather the data for that quarter, so I can show you the ever-rising chart.  My feelings aren't hurt, I went ahead and gathered the summer 2014 numbers, and now I'll report both at the same time.  The chart is for bomber prices, partly because of the dramatic 30-cent jump last quarter.  Here are the current numbers:

• 6-packs: $9.66, down 3 cents (Q1: -.01, Q2: -.02)
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.54, up 30 cents (Q1: +.30, Q2: -.00)
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.91, down 3 cents (Q1: +.12, Q2: -.15)
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.98, up 4 cents (Q1: -.09, Q2: +.13)
• 16 oz. draft: $4.61 up 9 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.79, up 9 cents

It appears that Laurelwood Red is now only available in six-packs, so I have removed it from the bomber index (the numbers reflect apples-to-apples with the previous index).  I think the replacement bomber will be Base Camp In Tents India Pale Lager, but I want to gather the numbers for one quarter before adding it in, to preserve apples-to-apples comparison with the previous quarter.

I also wonder if I will be able to keep Belmont Station in the retail index.  They seem to be tweaking the six-pack selection, and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped some of the old stalwarts that a boring price index depends on.  I'm sure the changes allow a more interesting selection there, but it will sadden me to lose that data point (and hopefully I'll be able to find a replacement).  The pub side of Belmont is better than ever, and it will continue to be in the pub price index.

The bomber non-sale price is way up, largely because Hopworks IPA has gone way up in price.  Retailers (or wholesalers) seem to be trying to get people used to the new normal by offering discounted sale prices on it for now.  The six-pack chart actually tapers off a little bit, mainly because of continued pressure on Terminal Gravity and Caldera, whose six-packs used to be relatively expensive but are starting to fall more in line with everyone else.

Check back in three months for the next installment of the index.  More information on how the index is compiled is on the PBPI configuration page.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2013

As predicted by a couple of industry followers of the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI), beer got more expensive in Portland this quarter.  It's a pretty big leap, with less generous sale prices accompanying higher shelf-tag prices. There's no clear external driver for this -- I think you can thank Oregon's three-tier system for allowing price fixing by the distributors for this.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for the winter quarter of 2013:

• 6-packs: $9.69, up 19 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.29, up 7 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.94, up 29 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.93, up 11 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.52 unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.70, up 5 cents

Last quarter, someone commented that beer prices in Oregon are significantly higher than prices in other states... for Oregon beer.  This despite the relatively low level of taxation in Oregon.  The most likely explanation for this disparity is price fixing by the wholesalers.

I have to admit, I get out less and less often these days.  The pub prices may be a little out of date, and may get revised (upward) as I make it around to the pubs in the index.

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.  Check back in March to see the first numbers of 2014.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2013

This quarter's installment of the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI) won't surprise anyone.  Prices in every category are up, in some cases by quite a bit.  The graph on the left isn't very dramatic, I admit, since it's on a scale of $0 to $16.  But I wanted to shake things up a bit by giving you a graphic representation of the price difference between six-packs (in orange) and the six-pack equivalent (SPE) price of 22-ounce bombers (in blue).  If you want the detailed numbers, click on the graph to see a larger version, but the small graph nicely illustrates the bomber price penalty -- about 80% right now.  The average bomber in town is priced like a $15.66 six-pack, when it's on sale.  Regular price is now like a $16.36 six-pack.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for the summer quarter of 2013:

• 6-packs: $9.37, up 21 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.00, up 12 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.72, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, up 7 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.52 up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.65, up 6 cents

This is the 16th installment of the PBPI (though only the 15th counting the more useful sale/happy hour prices).  For the 4th edition (2010Q2), I dropped the Hawthorne Safeway because it didn't have any of the bombers I was indexing.  I knew the beer selection was better there since the store was remodeled over a year ago, but it didn't occur to me until the other day that they carry all the beers in the index now!  It's always been a struggle to keep a full slate of stores that carry all the beers, so I will happily add them back in to the index next quarter.  It also gives me the option of dropping New Seasons -- something I never thought I'd say -- since they are now the only store I canvass that doesn't carry any Rogue bombers.

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.  Check back three months from now for the autumn numbers, and meanwhile spread the word about the bomber price penalty.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2013

No, no, no!  This isn't how it was supposed to go.

Starting in the middle of 2011, the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI) looked like it was showing bomber prices decreasing while six-pack prices marched slowly upwards.  Not that I was excited about more expensive six-packs, but I have always considered the bomber price penalty to be a temporary distortion peculiar to the beer industry.  I thought the SPE of bombers would eventually fall below six-pack prices.  I can't think of another consumer liquid where a larger package is more expensive per ounce than a bundle of little packages.  It's not true of soda pop, wine, liquor, bottled water, shampoo, ... you name it.

But the trend I was hoping to spot didn't continue, and now we have bomber prices -- shown in the chart -- higher than ever before, while six-pack prices fell even more than they did last time.  And not just the sale prices, but the "official" prices.  Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.16, down 7 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.88, up 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.61, down 15 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.71, up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.47 up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, down 2 cents

What is happening here?  I think there is some healthy competition in six-packs, as breweries like 10 Barrel and Oakshire move into that area.  Ninkasi must have their six-pack pipeline flowing steadily enough that they have been able to lower their prices, and I think Caldera and Terminal Gravity are feeling price pressure since it's hard to justify the high prices they've enjoyed for a few years when the newcomers have something more interesting at a lower price.

For some reason, the bombers in the PBPI aren't feeling that heat, and Laurelwood has raised the price on their bombers by 10% this time, though most retailers have a sale price on them for now to cushion the blow.  However, there might be a bias in the bombers I've selected, because I've seen some new sale prices on other bombers that I've long considered either slightly or wildly overpriced.

Logistically, I'm starting to be troubled by HUB IPA bombers.  New Seasons appears to have dumped them in favor of HUB tallboys, and QFC has a space on the shelf for them, but no bottles and an obviously incorrect price tag ($6.30).  For this month's numbers I subbed in other HUB bombers those stores were carrying (DOA at QFC, Secession at New Seasons).  The HUB tallboys are a great innovation, especially if they can get the price closer to Ninkasi's SPE, but I may need to find a replacement for the bombers in the index (come to think of it, Gigantic IPA would make a reasonable and somewhat poetic replacement).

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2012

I wasn't in a big hurry to get the PBPI out this quarter, in case the Mayans were right.  No sense wasting all that work.

Six-pack sale prices are down quite a bit from last time, even though you can see from the graph that the nominal shelf-tag price has been steady for a year.  I think you can explain that by sales on Ninkasi Total Domination. Ninkasi entered the six-pack world at a pretty high price point, and it worked pretty well for them, but I think they'll have to keep the sale prices competitive to keep the product moving, especially with new six-packs from 10 Barrel hitting the shelves.

Bomber prices are back up after some declines last quarter.  A couple of pub prices went up this time, bringing the average up a bit.  I think we'll see more of that in 2013.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.23, down 2 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.84, up 8 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.76, down 10 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.66, up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.44 up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.61, up 2 cents

The six-pack numbers are slightly adjusted from the ones reported last time, because QFC has made room for Caldera six-packs again.  It was a safe adjustment to make, I just recalculated last quarter's numbers with the same price QFC charged this time and the time before.  If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.

Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2012

A quiet edition of the PBPI this quarter, after the big increases last time.  Bomber prices have come down from the all-time highs of the summer, though they are still pretty steep compared to six-packs: $15.15 is the average six-pack equivalent (SPE) price for bombers on sale.  I went ahead and put up the graph for bomber prices again to illustrate the decline but also show how bombers are still near the top of the prices I've seen over the past three years.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.22, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.76, down 7 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.83, up 1 cent
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.63, down 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.39 unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, unchanged

Two notes about the composition of the index.  First, I was worried about Hopworks IPA:  a couple of the places I looked did not have any in stock, and QFC had it very obviously mismarked on the shelf (about 33% higher in price than other HUB bombers).  It made me fear that Hopworks was dropping IPA bombers now that they are canning it in tall-boys, but I have been assured by them that while there may have been a "temporary little burp in the pipeline", they are not discontinuing the HUB IPA bombers.  The other tweak I had to make was -- for the purposes of comparing to last quarter -- to pretend that QFC had Caldera Pale Ale on the shelf at the summertime price.  In fact, the prices above omit a Caldera price at QFC, because it wasn't out, and there wasn't a shelf tag for it.  Has it been bumped by the new 10 Barrel six-packs?  Or is it a temporary outage?  We shall see.

This year has flown by.  The next installment of the Portland Beer Price Index will be out around Christmas.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2012

Summertime, and the beer buyin' ain't easy. The PBPI is up, up, up this quarter, except for the sticker price of six-packs, which stayed the same. Bomber prices, after hitting a historic low last quarter, are back up to historic highs. That's kind of a blow to my theorizing, since I thought the past year's trend of lower bomber prices meant that their artificial price inflation with respect to six-packs would eventually correct itself.  Not yet, so in honor of that, this month's chart shows the oscillations of the bomber numbers over the last three years.  Here are the prices I observed this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.25, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.83, up 13 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.85, up 12 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.68, up 17 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.39 up 6 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, up 5 cents

Three of the pubs I survey have raised their draft prices since I last checked.  That's after one pub raised them last quarter.  Beer on tap is going to cost you more going forward.  I won't be surprised to see more price hikes at bars next time also.

If you're very fastidious, you've noticed that the bomber prices quoted above don't add up with the difference to last quarter's price.  It's because I made an adjustment, dropping Beer Valley's Leafer Madness from the index (at least for now).  I had added it in a while back when it was difficult to find Pelican IPA around Portland, but this time -- for the first time ever -- every store I canvass had Pelican in stock.  That by itself wouldn't lead me to kick Leafer out, but that beer was only on the shelf at one of the places I check.  Ouch.  That was supposed to be my high-end replacement for the fading Pelican, but the tables have dramatically turned.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2012

A pretty quiet installment of the PBPI this quarter:  no change of more than 3 cents in any of the categories.  Suits me, I'm ready for some quiet time.  Here are the numbers:

• 6-packs: $9.25, up 2 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.96, down 3 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.73, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.77, down 1 cent
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33 up 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.54, up 2 cents

The draft prices are actually lower than I reported last time, but I realized I had been recording too high of a pint price at the Horse Brass for a few quarters. Taking that into account, the draft prices are up 2 cents from what I should have reported last time. I discussed the details in last week's meandering Horse Brass post.

The bomber availability battle that I fight every quarter seems to be pretty stable for now:  Pelican IPA was available at 3 of the 5 stores I canvass, and Beer Valley Leafer Madness was at 4 of them.  But in a surprise development, the Division Street New Seasons has stopped carrying any Rogue bombers.  An employee told me they dropped them because the prices were getting too high.  Uh, yeah, for the last 20 years or so; you guys are just now figuring that out?  For now Rogue and New Seasons have enough coverage that I'll keep them both in the survey, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2011

Could you imagine yourself trading June sunshine for December sunshine? It's not a good trade, but aren't you glad that our dreary summer has been partially made up for by a dry December?  That's right, I'm talking about Portland weather on the shortest day of the year. It's the winter solstice, time for the Q4 2011 Portland Beer Price Index:

• 6-packs: $9.23, up 25 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.99, up 6 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.73, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, up 1 cent
• 16 oz. draft: $4.35, up 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, unchanged

An anonymous commenter last quarter said that wholesale six-pack prices were heading up, and that certainly showed up in the six-pack retail prices:  this was the biggest jump the PBPI has ever seen.  In fact, everything went up this quarter except happy hour pints.  One pub raised their regular pint price, but kept the happy hour price the same.  I'm sad to see bomber prices bounce up from their record low last time.  They are still overpriced, with basically the same SPE price as happy hour pints.

As far as logistics go, I had to adjust the prices I have been recording at the Pearl Specialty Market, because I didn't notice until this time that their shelf price includes the bottle deposit, even on six-packs.  Not that most of us cash those deposits back in, but all the other prices I've been recording leave off the deposit, so this time I brought Pearl's prices down accordingly.  As a result, the previously reported Q3 numbers are slightly higher than the base price used for the price differences above.

Has the beer selection been shrinking at the Seven Corners New Seasons?  Unlike QFC and Fred Meyers, they continue to carry Pelican IPA, but they did not have sixers of high-volume standbys Widmer Hef or Deschutes Black Butte Porter on the shelf, nor did they have Rogue Shakespeare Stout.  I was able to record reasonable prices since they had other bottles from those breweries that are always priced the same as the missing ones, but it makes me wonder what they're up to.

Finally, I want to remind everyone that this is not a complaint about beer prices, not that I'm above that, especially with numbers like these.  But the main purpose of the PBPI is to track price trends over time. Click here for an explanation of how the numbers are gathered, and check back three months from now for the Q1 2012 PBPI.  If I had to venture a guess, I'd say to get ready to see even higher prices next time.

Beer Festival Prices Keep Going Up

A couple weeks ago, I thought the Hood River Hops Festival was a little cheeky for charging $6 for an empty plastic mug; then the obligatory pint glass at the Oaks Park Fresh Hops Fest was $8.  The pint glass was nicer to drink from and more of a keepsake than a plastic mug; ditto the $8 tulip glass at the recent Beermongers 2nd Anniversary.  Either way, $6 or $8 seems like a pretty steep price for entry, though looking into it more, Hood River was just following the lead of the Oregon Brewers Festival, which has charged $6 for their plastic mugs for at least the last couple of years.

So I was a little floored to realize that the $25 entrance fee at the upcoming Holiday Ale Festival -- for a mug and 8 tickets -- effectively means that your plastic mug costs you $17!  HAF prices have been steadily climbing: last year the mug penalty was $15, up from $10 in 2009 and 2008, and $5 in 2007.  I guess I am going to have to add a festival category to the Portland Beer Price Index.

There has been some beer-geek discussion around Portland about how maybe the big festivals should raise the entry price to help keep the crowds smaller, but now that I'm faced with the reality of a $17 entry fee, I wonder if I agree with that.  It would be convenient to blame Mr. Alworth -- here's a Holiday fest write-up from 2007 where he hints that higher prices might thin the crowds.  But that wouldn't be fair:  the Mighty Mites small beer festival that Jeff helped organize in August charged an entry fee of $0 and encouraged attendees to bring their own mug from some other festival.

Now the big question on my mind is whether I will see Jim from Portland Beer and Music at the HAF.  He has a thing against drinking fancy beer from plastic cups.

Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2011

The days have been growing rapidly shorter, and here we are at the autumn equinox. Time for the 2011 third quarter Portland Beer Price Index:

• 6-packs: $9.04, up 1 cent
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.94, down 14 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.74, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, down 12 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, unchanged

Six-pack prices continue their upward trend, but the regular bomber price of $4.94 is the lowest (adjusted) price I've recorded in the two-plus years of the index. The huge drops in the bomber numbers are all attributable to lower prices on the high-end bombers: Pelican, Rogue, and Beer Valley. Pelican IPA continues to give me trouble. I only found it at two stores in my survey this time, though both of them had it at the entirely reasonable price of $5.

Remember, this is not a complaint about beer prices, it's an exercise in tracking price trends over time. Click here for an explanation of how the PBPI numbers are gathered. Join me at the winter solstice for the fourth quarter PBPI.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2011

Even though we've endured a lot of rain this June, it is indeed the summer solstice, that bittersweet moment when the days are blessedly long, but doomed to grow shorter.  So allow me to present the Summer 2011 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  Beer prices are migrating northward this quarter, as you can see by the chart on the left, which shows the average retail shelf price and "on-sale" price of six-packs in the survey.  I've added one retail location, one six-pack, and one bomber to the data; I'll explain the changes in detail below.  As always, I ask you to remember that this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's simply a project to watch how prices change over time.  If you're having trouble sleeping, click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

The Summer 2011 PBPI is as follows:

• 6-packs: $9.03, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.08, up 8 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.69, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.90, up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33, up 4 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, up 5 cents

Everything's going up.  Two pubs raised their draft prices this quarter, and the six-pack and bomber prices are not surprisingly continuing an upward trend.  The reported six-pack price here is actually up more than 11 cents since last time: that is due to the fact that I've added the relatively expensive Ninkasi Total Domination six-packs into the data.  I recorded the Ninkasi price last quarter but left it out of the index at that time since I didn't have any past data on it.  This time it's in for good, and this quarter's numbers reflect the change from last quarter when you include Ninkasi in both numbers.

On the bomber side, I had hoped Beer Valley Leafer Madness would be a more permanently available choice than Pelican IPA, but Fred Meyer has stopped carrying Leafer, and I didn't see it at QFC either.  Reluctantly, I will leave both Pelican and Leafer in for now, since each is available at 3 of the 5 locations I canvass.

One change to the PBPI that I'm excited about is that I added a fifth store to the retail survey:  Pearl Specialty Market.  Despite my efforts to compile a list of beers that are pretty universally available, it's surprisingly difficult to find a store that carries all of them.  I was very happy to notice that Pearl does carry them, so I added the store to the survey.  That addition also helps the bomber sale price numbers, since if you buy 6 bombers at Pearl, you get a 10% discount.

Look for the next PBPI around the fall equinox.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2011

Now that the days have once more lengthened to challenge the nights, here is the Spring 2011 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  This thing has been going for nearly two years now, so I finally can replace the squirrely graphic I've been using to label these posts with one that contains actual data from the survey: the average retail shelf price and "on-sale" price of bombers in the survey.  As always, I ask you to remember that this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's just a project to watch how prices change over time.  Click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

Here it is:

• 6-packs: $8.78, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.03, up 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.31, up 18 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.95, down 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.29, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.52, unchanged

I have to admit, I haven't been to every pub in the pint-price survey all that recently.  But I don't know of any prices that have changed since last quarter.  On the retail side, this survey marks the second one in which Beer Valley's Leafer Madness has replaced Pelican IPA.  I expect to make two other changes next quarter: I'll include Ninkasi's Total Domination in the 6-pack survey, and I'll start averaging in the prices at Pearl Specialty Market, since they sell everything in the survey at pretty reasonable prices.  I'm collecting the new data for Ninkasi and Pearl this time, but not figuring it into the numbers since I can't compare them to last quarter.

Look for the next PBPI around the summer solstice.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2010

A few days late, here is the Winter 2010 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  Please remember, this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's just a project to watch how prices change over time.  Click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

It's a pretty quiet update. It doesn't appear that draft prices have changed in the pubs in the survey, and on the retail side only the sale prices fluctuated a little. One small wrinkle: for comparing this quarter's bomber prices against the last quarter's, I am throwing out Pelican IPA, which was only available at two stores in the autumn survey, but the final average price includes Pelican's replacement: Beer Valley Leafer Madness.

• 6-packs: $8.73, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.99, unchanged ($4.68 leaving out Pelican and Leafer Madness)
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.13, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.98, down 1 cent ($4.67 vs. $4.68 leaving out Pelican and Leafer Madness)
• 16 oz. draft: $4.29, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.52, unchanged

It's possible that Pelican IPA will return to the PBPI -- I found it at three stores this time. Only Fred Meyers failed me. So I recorded the Pelican prices as well as the Leafer Madness prices, because even though I found LM at all four places I check, a couple of months ago when I looked only two of them had it. Pelican is a delicious IPA, it contributes to the geographic diversity of the survey, and its new lower price is a piece of good news for Oregon beer lovers. If Fred's starts carrying it again, I'll reinstate it in the PBPI (maybe keeping Leafer Madness also).

The next PBPI will be out when the days and nights are next of equal length.

Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2010

Today is the fall equinox, and it marks the first anniversary of the Portland Beer Price Index.  A few more quarters, and then we'll really have some data.  Please remember, this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's just a project to watch how prices change over time.  Click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

Here are the figures for Autumn 2010:

• 6-packs: $8.73, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.94, down 1 cent
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.13, down 12 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.94, up 11 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.29, up 8 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.52, up 1 cent

On the retail side, the "normal" prices are about the same as the Summer 2010 figures.  The "sale" prices look like they're wildly swinging, but if you look back over the last couple of surveys, you could interpret it that they're just returning to prices they were at in earlier surveys.  In the past two PBPIs, bomber sale prices had fallen 12 cents; now they're up 11.  Mainly this continues the trend of very few bomber prices being marked down.  The six-pack sale price simply undoes the 12-cent rise from last time, when surprisingly few sixers were on sale.

On the pub side, prices are creeping up.  I think the happy hour price would have been up more, except Hopworks' happy hour is at a 75-cent discount, while last time I had it at at 50 cents.  It was probably my error, since it was 75 cents the time before.

There is one problem I have to fix.  Pelican IPA has now gone two quarters without being available at Fred's or QFC.  A beer and wine guy at Fred's told me it is because they now self-distribute.  This quarter I just used the historical price for those two stores, since its price hadn't changed at the other two stores, but I have to find a replacement.  You guys helped me find QFC to replace the lame selection at Safeway: now help me find a replacement for Pelican.  I would like it to be something outside of Portland, with wide availability, and something a little on the high end of the price range, like Pelican.  I had been considering Oakshire and Heater Allen, but I think Oakshire is too reasonably priced (thanks!) and Heater Allen may not be available at all four retail places.  Maybe Beer Valley Leafer Madness is a good replacement?  Other ideas?

Look for the next index around Christmas.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2010

It's hard to believe that the days are only going to get shorter from here, since the clouds have kept the days from seeming long at all, but it's the summer solstice already. Here's the Summer 2010 Portland Beer Price Index.

• 6-packs: $8.73, up 2 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.95, up 3 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.25, up 12 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.83, down 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.21, up 1 cent
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.51, up 3 cents

Generally, prices are up a tad, though bomber sale prices continue to fall. There's a little bit of restating going on with the retail numbers. At the time of the Spring 2010 PBPI, I complained that Safeway didn't stock enough of the beers in the index, and asked for suggestions for a replacement. Readers Jeff and Rick suggested the QFC at 55th and Burnside. It was a good call -- the fine beer selection at that store covered all the beers. Sometime in April, I recorded the prices at QFC, so the up/down figures quoted above are with respect to the spring numbers once QFC is factored in, which lowered the prices by 2 or 3 cents.

Speaking of restating, it looks like I may have to find a replacement for Pelican IPA. Neither QFC nor Fred Meyers had it this time. The wine guy at Fred Meyers said that Fred's hasn't been able to get it since Pelican moved to self-distribution. At QFC there was one bottle of Pelican Tsunami Stout and one of Kiwanda Cream Ale, both drastically marked down to $5, which leads me to believe that QFC is also discontinuing Pelican. For the index this time, I maintained the previous QFC and Fred's Pelican prices, and used the closeout $5 QFC price as its sale price. Since you guys were so good at finding me a replacement retailer, I'll ask your advice again. What would be a good bomber to replace Pelican? I'd like it to be an Oregon beer from outside of Portland, so the first things that come to mind are Oakshire and Heater Allen, though I'm not sure QFC has the latter. What do you think?

Time flies when you're having fun. Look for the next PBPI -- one year after the first one! -- around September 21.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2010

Sunday is the spring equinox, so it's time once again for the Portland Beer Price Index. As a reminder, this survey is not a complaint about beer prices generally or at any particular place. It's just my attempt to watch price trends over time. For more details on which beers and establishments were surveyed, see the first PBPI.

Here is the Spring 2010 PBPI:

• 6-packs: $8.74, down 1 cent
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.94, down 9 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.15, up 30 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.88, down 9 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.20, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.48, up 2 cents

It's interesting, the pint price is unchanged again, but not because no one changed their prices this time. A 25-cent drop in the typical Belmont Station tap price offset the 25-cent rise at Deschutes. The happy hour average went up because the Bridgeport Ale House is 25 cents less generous than it was three months ago.

The drop in bomber prices is almost wholly due to a $1 drop in the price of Pelican IPA at Belmont and New Seasons.  Fred's is pocketing the savings on Pelican, and also seems to indicate that they're going to raise the price of Rogue Shakespeare Stout, though the sale price keeps it even for now.  I noted fewer 6-pack sales this time, which resulted in the 30-cent jump in the 6-pack sale price.  In particular, no one had a sale on Deschutes.

Is something going on with Deschutes' cash flow?  They raised their pub pint price, and no six-packs are on sale.  On the other hand, prices are still falling at Belmont Station -- including a 25-cent drop on the typical draft pint price -- which makes me think they're feeling the heat from Beermongers.  Do the Deschutes and Belmont changes represent two opposing responses to the rough economy?  I also noticed more variability in the prices at Horse Brass.  A lot of classics are just $4.25 a pint, but some guest tap prices are creeping up.  For now I kept a $4.50 typical price for Horse Brass.

In the next cycle, I'm likely to drop Safeway, since they only contribute four six-packs and no bombers.  I tried to outflank them this time by checking out the fancier store at 39th and Powell, but it had exactly the same selection as on Hawthorne.  Does Trader Joe's have the beers in my survey?  QFC?  I might consider Beaumont Market or 39th Street Mini-Mart as a replacement, but they are likely to have higher prices than Safeway and I'd have to figure out how to restate the prices.  If you have any ideas for me, I'd love to hear them.

Look for the next PBPI around June 21.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2009

It's the winter solstice, time once again for the quarterly Portland Beer Price Index. In response to comments on the first PBPI back in September, I recorded not only the regular price of the beers in the survey, but also sale prices (for retail) and happy hour prices (for bars).

Reminder: this survey is not a complaint about beer prices generally or at any particular place. It's just my attempt to watch price trends over time. For more details on which beers and establishments were surveyed, see the first PBPI.

Here is the Winter 2009 PBPI:

• 6-packs: $8.75, down 10 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.03, down 5 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $7.85
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.97
• 16 oz. draft: $4.20, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.46

The makeup of the BPBI has changed a little bit, and I went back and recalculated the fall numbers based on that. When the big boys do it, they call it "restating". One change is that I reluctantly dropped Beermongers from the bomber index, because they only had 3 of the 6 bombers in stock when I was there (not a single bottle from Hopworks, Laurelwood, or Lompoc). I was really counting on them to lower the index a little bit with their great prices -- indeed, the autumn bomber index is 18 cents higher without them -- but their selection misses too many Portland standards. The other change was adding Bridgeport's Hawthorne Ale House to the pub list -- because of their generous happy hour -- which lowered the 16-ounce index from $4.27 to $4.20.

The decline in retail prices is mainly due to Belmont Station's lower prices, though Fred Meyers lowered one or two also. The sale/happy-hour prices are based on all the beers in the survey, so it includes beers that weren't on sale. That's especially evident in the bomber prices -- almost none of them were marked down when I did my canvass. A few more details are worth mentioning:

• I used Belmont Station's cash prices. Purchases with a credit or debit card are higher.
• Not only is the pub average unchanged, but no pub in the survey changed its regular price since September.
• Six-pack equivalent (SPE) prices:
  • bomber: $16.46
  • sale bomber: $16.27
  • pub: $18.91
  • pub happy hour: $15.55
    

Look for the Spring 2010 PBPI around March 21st.

Belmont Station's New Prices

This week, Belmont Station introduced two-tier pricing on its bottled beers: customers paying cash will pay about 4% less than those using credit cards. There was a small amount of anguish about this on Twitter, and the Bulls & Brew blog published a rebuke, but 4% truly reflects the costs that third-party card processors charge to small merchants like Belmont Station -- basically a 50-cent charge per transaction, plus 3% of the total transaction. Two-tier pricing seems like a fair solution to me: let the customer decide whether the fee is worth the convenience.

Part of the initial reaction to Belmont's move was along the lines of "The most expensive bottle shop in town is raising its prices?" To counter that impression, the Station's latest email newsletter -- titled "WE REDUCED PRICES ON HUNDREDS OF BEERS!" -- tries to spin things the other direction:

We've reduced the everyday prices on hundreds of beers. 95% of our six packs and large single bottles (22 ounce, 750ml, etc.) now cost less.

Effective this Monday, November 2, the biggest discounts will go to CASH customers.

Sorry guys, but I'm not buying that. As luck would have it, I can do a quick fact check on this, since I recently collected a few 6-pack and bomber prices for the PBPI. The average price of the 6-packs in my survey did indeed fall from $9 to $8.67 at Belmont Station, and the bomber average dropped from $5.21 to $5.07. That's the cash price, and the reductions are 3.67% and 2.67% respectively. So credit-card customers are not -- on average -- seeing lower prices.

Furthermore, I would be surprised if 95% of the prices were reduced, since in my small survey, only four of the six 6-packs decreased in price, and only three of the six bombers are cheaper. The other prices stayed the same. So, either I'm a really good shot with my beer picks, or the price reductions fell disproportionately on the 950 special-occasion beers on the shelves, not the 50 biggest movers.

One more problem: customers paying with a debit card pay the same higher price as credit-card customers. My admittedly shallow understanding of the problem is that there is not a percentage fee on debit card transactions, just a 50-cent charge. On a $5 purchase, 50 cents is already 10% of the transaction, but at least there isn't the added percentage there is with credit cards. Maybe the 4% averages out, but it seems like debit cards should be treated more kindly than credit cards. [Update: In the comments below, Chris from Belmont Station clarifies that debit cards are now charged a percentage as well; Kevin points out that nowadays debit is only cheaper to process than credit above about $25. So, I was wrong to think that debit should get off lighter than credit.]

Despite Belmont Station's clumsy attempt to cheapwash their new policy, I like their approach of passing the savings on to the customer. Although I've gotten used to the convenience of paying with a credit card, I've recently started paying with cash at local establishments. Do your local merchants and publicans a favor: use cash when you can.