Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2014

Are you surprised to hear the price of beer is going up?  The Portland Beer Price Index isn't.  Here are the numbers I gathered around Portland on the equinox:

• 6-packs: $9.69, up 3 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.58, down 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.97, up 6 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $5.21, down 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.64 up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.85, up 6 cents

It looks weird that the average bomber prices went down.  It has to do with the strange gyrations of Hopworks IPA bomber prices, which have seemed almost random the last few months.  The shelf price of that beer fell $2.50 at one place I survey.  So that's the price drop.

Everything else is going up in price.  $9 seems like a lot for a six-pack.  I feel like I'm usually finding something I can stand under $8 (and a couple lucky $6 finds recently).  But these are just the averages of a fixed set of Oregon beers.

Speaking of which, since Laurelwood Red is now a six-pack beer and no longer in bombers (hooray!), I replaced that bomber with Base Camp In-Tents IPL.  (That change would also have changed last quarter's numbers, so the up/down numbers above are apples-to-apples as if Base Camp was in last time.)  The only hiccup there is that QFC doesn't carry Base Camp right now, but it's a pretty popular supermarket beer these days so I hope they will figure it out pretty soon.  Consult the PBPI configuration page for more information on the makeup of the index.  See you in three months.

Portland Beer Price Index, First Half of 2014

What if they had a beer price index and nobody came?  Apparently nothing, since I skipped reporting the PBPI for the spring quarter of 2014, and no one called me on it at all.  I did gather the data for that quarter, so I can show you the ever-rising chart.  My feelings aren't hurt, I went ahead and gathered the summer 2014 numbers, and now I'll report both at the same time.  The chart is for bomber prices, partly because of the dramatic 30-cent jump last quarter.  Here are the current numbers:

• 6-packs: $9.66, down 3 cents (Q1: -.01, Q2: -.02)
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.54, up 30 cents (Q1: +.30, Q2: -.00)
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.91, down 3 cents (Q1: +.12, Q2: -.15)
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.98, up 4 cents (Q1: -.09, Q2: +.13)
• 16 oz. draft: $4.61 up 9 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.79, up 9 cents

It appears that Laurelwood Red is now only available in six-packs, so I have removed it from the bomber index (the numbers reflect apples-to-apples with the previous index).  I think the replacement bomber will be Base Camp In Tents India Pale Lager, but I want to gather the numbers for one quarter before adding it in, to preserve apples-to-apples comparison with the previous quarter.

I also wonder if I will be able to keep Belmont Station in the retail index.  They seem to be tweaking the six-pack selection, and I wouldn't be surprised if they dropped some of the old stalwarts that a boring price index depends on.  I'm sure the changes allow a more interesting selection there, but it will sadden me to lose that data point (and hopefully I'll be able to find a replacement).  The pub side of Belmont is better than ever, and it will continue to be in the pub price index.

The bomber non-sale price is way up, largely because Hopworks IPA has gone way up in price.  Retailers (or wholesalers) seem to be trying to get people used to the new normal by offering discounted sale prices on it for now.  The six-pack chart actually tapers off a little bit, mainly because of continued pressure on Terminal Gravity and Caldera, whose six-packs used to be relatively expensive but are starting to fall more in line with everyone else.

Check back in three months for the next installment of the index.  More information on how the index is compiled is on the PBPI configuration page.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2013

As predicted by a couple of industry followers of the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI), beer got more expensive in Portland this quarter.  It's a pretty big leap, with less generous sale prices accompanying higher shelf-tag prices. There's no clear external driver for this -- I think you can thank Oregon's three-tier system for allowing price fixing by the distributors for this.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for the winter quarter of 2013:

• 6-packs: $9.69, up 19 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.29, up 7 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.94, up 29 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.93, up 11 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.52 unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.70, up 5 cents

Last quarter, someone commented that beer prices in Oregon are significantly higher than prices in other states... for Oregon beer.  This despite the relatively low level of taxation in Oregon.  The most likely explanation for this disparity is price fixing by the wholesalers.

I have to admit, I get out less and less often these days.  The pub prices may be a little out of date, and may get revised (upward) as I make it around to the pubs in the index.

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.  Check back in March to see the first numbers of 2014.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2013

This quarter's installment of the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI) won't surprise anyone.  Prices in every category are up, in some cases by quite a bit.  The graph on the left isn't very dramatic, I admit, since it's on a scale of $0 to $16.  But I wanted to shake things up a bit by giving you a graphic representation of the price difference between six-packs (in orange) and the six-pack equivalent (SPE) price of 22-ounce bombers (in blue).  If you want the detailed numbers, click on the graph to see a larger version, but the small graph nicely illustrates the bomber price penalty -- about 80% right now.  The average bomber in town is priced like a $15.66 six-pack, when it's on sale.  Regular price is now like a $16.36 six-pack.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for the summer quarter of 2013:

• 6-packs: $9.37, up 21 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.00, up 12 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.72, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, up 7 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.52 up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.65, up 6 cents

This is the 16th installment of the PBPI (though only the 15th counting the more useful sale/happy hour prices).  For the 4th edition (2010Q2), I dropped the Hawthorne Safeway because it didn't have any of the bombers I was indexing.  I knew the beer selection was better there since the store was remodeled over a year ago, but it didn't occur to me until the other day that they carry all the beers in the index now!  It's always been a struggle to keep a full slate of stores that carry all the beers, so I will happily add them back in to the index next quarter.  It also gives me the option of dropping New Seasons -- something I never thought I'd say -- since they are now the only store I canvass that doesn't carry any Rogue bombers.

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.  Check back three months from now for the autumn numbers, and meanwhile spread the word about the bomber price penalty.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2013

No, no, no!  This isn't how it was supposed to go.

Starting in the middle of 2011, the Portland Beer Price Index (PBPI) looked like it was showing bomber prices decreasing while six-pack prices marched slowly upwards.  Not that I was excited about more expensive six-packs, but I have always considered the bomber price penalty to be a temporary distortion peculiar to the beer industry.  I thought the SPE of bombers would eventually fall below six-pack prices.  I can't think of another consumer liquid where a larger package is more expensive per ounce than a bundle of little packages.  It's not true of soda pop, wine, liquor, bottled water, shampoo, ... you name it.

But the trend I was hoping to spot didn't continue, and now we have bomber prices -- shown in the chart -- higher than ever before, while six-pack prices fell even more than they did last time.  And not just the sale prices, but the "official" prices.  Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.16, down 7 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.88, up 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.61, down 15 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.71, up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.47 up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, down 2 cents

What is happening here?  I think there is some healthy competition in six-packs, as breweries like 10 Barrel and Oakshire move into that area.  Ninkasi must have their six-pack pipeline flowing steadily enough that they have been able to lower their prices, and I think Caldera and Terminal Gravity are feeling price pressure since it's hard to justify the high prices they've enjoyed for a few years when the newcomers have something more interesting at a lower price.

For some reason, the bombers in the PBPI aren't feeling that heat, and Laurelwood has raised the price on their bombers by 10% this time, though most retailers have a sale price on them for now to cushion the blow.  However, there might be a bias in the bombers I've selected, because I've seen some new sale prices on other bombers that I've long considered either slightly or wildly overpriced.

Logistically, I'm starting to be troubled by HUB IPA bombers.  New Seasons appears to have dumped them in favor of HUB tallboys, and QFC has a space on the shelf for them, but no bottles and an obviously incorrect price tag ($6.30).  For this month's numbers I subbed in other HUB bombers those stores were carrying (DOA at QFC, Secession at New Seasons).  The HUB tallboys are a great innovation, especially if they can get the price closer to Ninkasi's SPE, but I may need to find a replacement for the bombers in the index (come to think of it, Gigantic IPA would make a reasonable and somewhat poetic replacement).

If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.

Hollywood Beverage: Eastside Liquor + Beer Store

Portland now has a second liquor store which the OLCC allows to sell beer and wine:  Hollywood Beverage at about 30th and NE Sandy.  A couple of years ago I wrote up the other such store: Pearl Specialty Market, which is still your best bet for a good beer selection in the Pearl.

Hollywood Beverage has been open since October -- its previous incarnation as the more run-of-the-mill Hollywood Liquor was further up Sandy just east of the I-84 overpass -- but I didn't make it in for a visit until a couple weeks ago.  I was stunned by how low some of the beer prices were.  Some of them seemed like mistakes until I realized there were too many of them to be in error.  If you thought the prices at Beermongers were the lowest possible, check out these bomber prices:

• Ninkasi Oatis: $3.15
• Lompoc Proletariat Red: $3.25
• Pelican Silverspot IPA: $4.00
• Gigantic IPA: $4.35
• Pelican IPA: $4.40
• Laurelwood Deranger: $7.25

The selection was good but not a home run -- it struck me as kind of a work in progress.  The six-pack prices weren't as startlingly low as the bombers -- most of them could be beat by supermarket sales -- but $8.50 Ninkasi six-packs and $9.50 Caldera sixers were as low as I can remember seeing anywhere.  Imported beers didn't strike me as being so cheap; I think Beermongers may have them beat, and certainly has a better selection.

An employee came up while I was shopping and asked if I had any questions.  "Yeah, why is the beer so cheap?"  He said that the owner is so used to the low margins on liquor set by the OLCC that he thought 20% was a pretty decent markup on beer and wine.  The guy who told me that turned out to be the wine buyer for the store -- "You should see some of the bargains on our wine" -- and he said he's encouraging the owner to either raise the beer and wine prices or start promoting them more to increase sales volume.  So you might want to get in there and snatch up some bargains in case sanity prevails.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2012

I wasn't in a big hurry to get the PBPI out this quarter, in case the Mayans were right.  No sense wasting all that work.

Six-pack sale prices are down quite a bit from last time, even though you can see from the graph that the nominal shelf-tag price has been steady for a year.  I think you can explain that by sales on Ninkasi Total Domination. Ninkasi entered the six-pack world at a pretty high price point, and it worked pretty well for them, but I think they'll have to keep the sale prices competitive to keep the product moving, especially with new six-packs from 10 Barrel hitting the shelves.

Bomber prices are back up after some declines last quarter.  A couple of pub prices went up this time, bringing the average up a bit.  I think we'll see more of that in 2013.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.23, down 2 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.84, up 8 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.76, down 10 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.66, up 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.44 up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.61, up 2 cents

The six-pack numbers are slightly adjusted from the ones reported last time, because QFC has made room for Caldera six-packs again.  It was a safe adjustment to make, I just recalculated last quarter's numbers with the same price QFC charged this time and the time before.  If you require more information on the makeup of the PBPI, read the page which describes the composition of the index.

Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2012

A quiet edition of the PBPI this quarter, after the big increases last time.  Bomber prices have come down from the all-time highs of the summer, though they are still pretty steep compared to six-packs: $15.15 is the average six-pack equivalent (SPE) price for bombers on sale.  I went ahead and put up the graph for bomber prices again to illustrate the decline but also show how bombers are still near the top of the prices I've seen over the past three years.

Here are the Portland Beer Price Index numbers for this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.22, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.76, down 7 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.83, up 1 cent
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.63, down 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.39 unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, unchanged

Two notes about the composition of the index.  First, I was worried about Hopworks IPA:  a couple of the places I looked did not have any in stock, and QFC had it very obviously mismarked on the shelf (about 33% higher in price than other HUB bombers).  It made me fear that Hopworks was dropping IPA bombers now that they are canning it in tall-boys, but I have been assured by them that while there may have been a "temporary little burp in the pipeline", they are not discontinuing the HUB IPA bombers.  The other tweak I had to make was -- for the purposes of comparing to last quarter -- to pretend that QFC had Caldera Pale Ale on the shelf at the summertime price.  In fact, the prices above omit a Caldera price at QFC, because it wasn't out, and there wasn't a shelf tag for it.  Has it been bumped by the new 10 Barrel six-packs?  Or is it a temporary outage?  We shall see.

This year has flown by.  The next installment of the Portland Beer Price Index will be out around Christmas.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2012

Summertime, and the beer buyin' ain't easy. The PBPI is up, up, up this quarter, except for the sticker price of six-packs, which stayed the same. Bomber prices, after hitting a historic low last quarter, are back up to historic highs. That's kind of a blow to my theorizing, since I thought the past year's trend of lower bomber prices meant that their artificial price inflation with respect to six-packs would eventually correct itself.  Not yet, so in honor of that, this month's chart shows the oscillations of the bomber numbers over the last three years.  Here are the prices I observed this quarter:

• 6-packs: $9.25, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.83, up 13 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.85, up 12 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.68, up 17 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.39 up 6 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.59, up 5 cents

Three of the pubs I survey have raised their draft prices since I last checked.  That's after one pub raised them last quarter.  Beer on tap is going to cost you more going forward.  I won't be surprised to see more price hikes at bars next time also.

If you're very fastidious, you've noticed that the bomber prices quoted above don't add up with the difference to last quarter's price.  It's because I made an adjustment, dropping Beer Valley's Leafer Madness from the index (at least for now).  I had added it in a while back when it was difficult to find Pelican IPA around Portland, but this time -- for the first time ever -- every store I canvass had Pelican in stock.  That by itself wouldn't lead me to kick Leafer out, but that beer was only on the shelf at one of the places I check.  Ouch.  That was supposed to be my high-end replacement for the fading Pelican, but the tables have dramatically turned.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2012

A pretty quiet installment of the PBPI this quarter:  no change of more than 3 cents in any of the categories.  Suits me, I'm ready for some quiet time.  Here are the numbers:

• 6-packs: $9.25, up 2 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.96, down 3 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.73, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.77, down 1 cent
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33 up 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.54, up 2 cents

The draft prices are actually lower than I reported last time, but I realized I had been recording too high of a pint price at the Horse Brass for a few quarters. Taking that into account, the draft prices are up 2 cents from what I should have reported last time. I discussed the details in last week's meandering Horse Brass post.

The bomber availability battle that I fight every quarter seems to be pretty stable for now:  Pelican IPA was available at 3 of the 5 stores I canvass, and Beer Valley Leafer Madness was at 4 of them.  But in a surprise development, the Division Street New Seasons has stopped carrying any Rogue bombers.  An employee told me they dropped them because the prices were getting too high.  Uh, yeah, for the last 20 years or so; you guys are just now figuring that out?  For now Rogue and New Seasons have enough coverage that I'll keep them both in the survey, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Horse Brass Musings

The other night a few beer bloggers were standing around drinking beer, and a man in a suit and tie asked what our favorite beer bar was in town.  It's a tough question with so many great places in Portland, but Ezra was quick to speak up for the Horse Brass, and I had to admit that would be my first choice also.  (For what it's worth, Saraveza was the favorite of our well-dressed interrogator; Saraveza and Bailey's got a lot of nods around the circle.)

Yesterday I went to the Horse Brass for lunch.  It's only been a few weeks since I was there last, but there were a handful of noticeable changes in that short time:

• The old Belmont Station sign has been replaced by a Horse Brass sign (pictured).  Finally!
• The rotating tap menu now lists prices.  Hooray!
• The regular lineup beers have gone up in price by 25 cents.  Rats.
• There was music playing -- country and western -- on speakers throughout the pub.  Really?
• My fish and chips came with a side of ranch dressing instead of tartar sauce.  What the...!?

For a while I've considered it a drawback that there was practically no way to know the price of a rotating beer at the Horse Brass until your check came.  Bravo for printing the prices on the daily menu -- they're even listed online now.  We're not in nirvana just yet: the beer I ordered was listed at $4.50 but I was charged $4.95.  It's a start.

Speaking of prices -- are you sitting comfortably? I'm about to go off on a tangent.  For a few weeks I've been fretting because I realized that the Portland Beer Price Index has been overstating the "typical" pint price at Horse Brass by 50 cents.  What happened was, in the fall of 2010 I decided that most of the beers I ordered there were over $5, and only a few were under $5.  So, I rather brazenly raised the price I was recording in the PBPI from $4.50 to $5.  Problem is, the non-rotating, everyday beers on the menu have still been just $4.50 all that time, so that's the number I should have used, except now they have raised the price to $4.75.  This quarter's PBPI will be adjusted properly when it comes out next week.

Music playing on the stereo -- that's new, right?  I don't recall being in the Horse Brass, even at quiet times, and hearing canned music, or am I just forgetting?  Country music seemed a vaguely surprising choice, though the selection sounded more like Americana than Nashville, and it was inobtrusive enough that it didn't bother me.  I'll admit I would rather hear that in the background than authentic folk tunes from anywhere in the British Isles.

Many's the time that the devil on my left shoulder whispered to me to steal the square Belmont Station sign that hung next to the Horse Brass office awning for many years after the Station had moved up to Stark Street.  I'm glad that there is now a Horse Brass sign hanging there -- that temptation is now safely behind me.

I didn't make a fuss at the time, but ranch dressing with fish and chips?  Let's hope that was a one time accident.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2011

Could you imagine yourself trading June sunshine for December sunshine? It's not a good trade, but aren't you glad that our dreary summer has been partially made up for by a dry December?  That's right, I'm talking about Portland weather on the shortest day of the year. It's the winter solstice, time for the Q4 2011 Portland Beer Price Index:

• 6-packs: $9.23, up 25 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.99, up 6 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.73, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, up 1 cent
• 16 oz. draft: $4.35, up 2 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, unchanged

An anonymous commenter last quarter said that wholesale six-pack prices were heading up, and that certainly showed up in the six-pack retail prices:  this was the biggest jump the PBPI has ever seen.  In fact, everything went up this quarter except happy hour pints.  One pub raised their regular pint price, but kept the happy hour price the same.  I'm sad to see bomber prices bounce up from their record low last time.  They are still overpriced, with basically the same SPE price as happy hour pints.

As far as logistics go, I had to adjust the prices I have been recording at the Pearl Specialty Market, because I didn't notice until this time that their shelf price includes the bottle deposit, even on six-packs.  Not that most of us cash those deposits back in, but all the other prices I've been recording leave off the deposit, so this time I brought Pearl's prices down accordingly.  As a result, the previously reported Q3 numbers are slightly higher than the base price used for the price differences above.

Has the beer selection been shrinking at the Seven Corners New Seasons?  Unlike QFC and Fred Meyers, they continue to carry Pelican IPA, but they did not have sixers of high-volume standbys Widmer Hef or Deschutes Black Butte Porter on the shelf, nor did they have Rogue Shakespeare Stout.  I was able to record reasonable prices since they had other bottles from those breweries that are always priced the same as the missing ones, but it makes me wonder what they're up to.

Finally, I want to remind everyone that this is not a complaint about beer prices, not that I'm above that, especially with numbers like these.  But the main purpose of the PBPI is to track price trends over time. Click here for an explanation of how the numbers are gathered, and check back three months from now for the Q1 2012 PBPI.  If I had to venture a guess, I'd say to get ready to see even higher prices next time.

Beer Festival Prices Keep Going Up

A couple weeks ago, I thought the Hood River Hops Festival was a little cheeky for charging $6 for an empty plastic mug; then the obligatory pint glass at the Oaks Park Fresh Hops Fest was $8.  The pint glass was nicer to drink from and more of a keepsake than a plastic mug; ditto the $8 tulip glass at the recent Beermongers 2nd Anniversary.  Either way, $6 or $8 seems like a pretty steep price for entry, though looking into it more, Hood River was just following the lead of the Oregon Brewers Festival, which has charged $6 for their plastic mugs for at least the last couple of years.

So I was a little floored to realize that the $25 entrance fee at the upcoming Holiday Ale Festival -- for a mug and 8 tickets -- effectively means that your plastic mug costs you $17!  HAF prices have been steadily climbing: last year the mug penalty was $15, up from $10 in 2009 and 2008, and $5 in 2007.  I guess I am going to have to add a festival category to the Portland Beer Price Index.

There has been some beer-geek discussion around Portland about how maybe the big festivals should raise the entry price to help keep the crowds smaller, but now that I'm faced with the reality of a $17 entry fee, I wonder if I agree with that.  It would be convenient to blame Mr. Alworth -- here's a Holiday fest write-up from 2007 where he hints that higher prices might thin the crowds.  But that wouldn't be fair:  the Mighty Mites small beer festival that Jeff helped organize in August charged an entry fee of $0 and encouraged attendees to bring their own mug from some other festival.

Now the big question on my mind is whether I will see Jim from Portland Beer and Music at the HAF.  He has a thing against drinking fancy beer from plastic cups.

Portland Beer Price Index: Autumn 2011

The days have been growing rapidly shorter, and here we are at the autumn equinox. Time for the 2011 third quarter Portland Beer Price Index:

• 6-packs: $9.04, up 1 cent
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.94, down 14 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.74, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.78, down 12 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, unchanged

Six-pack prices continue their upward trend, but the regular bomber price of $4.94 is the lowest (adjusted) price I've recorded in the two-plus years of the index. The huge drops in the bomber numbers are all attributable to lower prices on the high-end bombers: Pelican, Rogue, and Beer Valley. Pelican IPA continues to give me trouble. I only found it at two stores in my survey this time, though both of them had it at the entirely reasonable price of $5.

Remember, this is not a complaint about beer prices, it's an exercise in tracking price trends over time. Click here for an explanation of how the PBPI numbers are gathered. Join me at the winter solstice for the fourth quarter PBPI.

Ebay vs. Beer

Yesterday on Beervana, Jeff commented on a Washington Post article about Ebay's black market for beers.  He really got it stirred up, 31 comments and counting.  Jeff thinks the brewers shouldn't be whining about the black market, they should raise their prices to eliminate it.

I'll go into why I disagree with Jeff below, but first some facts about beer sales on Ebay:

1. Ebay doesn't allow the sale of alcoholic beverages.
2. There is a loophole for collectible bottles, if the seller posts a disclaimer that it is the bottle that is valuable, not the beer inside.
3. For rare beers of recent vintage, that disclaimer is obviously a lie.
4. If the seller is willing to lie about the value of the beer to make a few dollars, how can you trust them to treat you honestly in the sale?
5. If you don't like to see beer scalping on Ebay, you can report beer auctions by clicking on the "Report Item" link on the page.  They usually take reported auctions down.
6. Just for fun, check out the time I auctioned an empty Abyss bottle on Ebay.

Occasionally I will report a beer auction on Ebay, just to strike a blow for honesty in the world.  I am not puritanically opposed to people doing what they want, but if you don't like Ebay's rules, you should find some other way to sell your beer.  Today Ebay took down a Dark Lord auction I reported, but it looks like they are going to leave up an auction by one of their "Top-Rated Sellers" of Stone's Framboise for the Cure, which was one of the scalped beers mentioned in the Washington Post article.

Part of the controversy would disappear if Ebay would simply drop their restriction on beer auctions.  Brewers couldn't complain about profiteering -- they would be free to participate in it if they wanted to make more money off of their products, or distribute to a wider audience.  It would also open the door for honest resellers to develop a reputation for properly handling a somewhat delicate product. Of course, Ebay doesn't drop their beer prohibition because they are constrained by a fractured regulatory system in the U.S., where every state has different restrictions on sale and delivery of alcohol.

Jeff's idea that raising prices will eliminate the black market is ridiculous.  This faith in a magical Market that can correctly determine the price of goods is part of the insanity of our times.  At best, it works in a circular definition sort of way:  the market determines the correct price at any given second because the correct price is what someone will pay.  But it doesn't work in any sort of predictive way:  based on this level of supply, and this level of demand, and this attribute of the product, the price will be such-and-such.  Since it can't predict anything, but can only rationalize what happened, this efficient-market model that modern Americans apply to everything has much more in common with religion than with science.

Given the fact that no one can predict ahead of time the market price of something traded in billions of units -- say, common stock of the Intel Corporation -- how is a small brewery supposed to calculate ahead of time the market price of a beer they made 5,000 bottles of?  Simply put, they can't calculate that.  So they set a reasonable price based on their costs, prices of similar products, and their past experience of what their customers will pay.  Of course they want to make a good profit, but there is also value to them in selling out fast -- they don't have to sit on an inventory, and they can devote more space in their operation to the next production run.

Further reading:

• Jeff's post
• Patrick's followup on Beeronomics
• Yesterday's Beer Advocate thread on the Post article
• A Beer Advocate Ebay thread from 2008

It's interesting how much more pro-Ebay the BAs have become in three years.

Portland Beer Price Index: Summer 2011

Even though we've endured a lot of rain this June, it is indeed the summer solstice, that bittersweet moment when the days are blessedly long, but doomed to grow shorter.  So allow me to present the Summer 2011 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  Beer prices are migrating northward this quarter, as you can see by the chart on the left, which shows the average retail shelf price and "on-sale" price of six-packs in the survey.  I've added one retail location, one six-pack, and one bomber to the data; I'll explain the changes in detail below.  As always, I ask you to remember that this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's simply a project to watch how prices change over time.  If you're having trouble sleeping, click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

The Summer 2011 PBPI is as follows:

• 6-packs: $9.03, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.08, up 8 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.69, up 11 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.90, up 5 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.33, up 4 cents
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.57, up 5 cents

Everything's going up.  Two pubs raised their draft prices this quarter, and the six-pack and bomber prices are not surprisingly continuing an upward trend.  The reported six-pack price here is actually up more than 11 cents since last time: that is due to the fact that I've added the relatively expensive Ninkasi Total Domination six-packs into the data.  I recorded the Ninkasi price last quarter but left it out of the index at that time since I didn't have any past data on it.  This time it's in for good, and this quarter's numbers reflect the change from last quarter when you include Ninkasi in both numbers.

On the bomber side, I had hoped Beer Valley Leafer Madness would be a more permanently available choice than Pelican IPA, but Fred Meyer has stopped carrying Leafer, and I didn't see it at QFC either.  Reluctantly, I will leave both Pelican and Leafer in for now, since each is available at 3 of the 5 locations I canvass.

One change to the PBPI that I'm excited about is that I added a fifth store to the retail survey:  Pearl Specialty Market.  Despite my efforts to compile a list of beers that are pretty universally available, it's surprisingly difficult to find a store that carries all of them.  I was very happy to notice that Pearl does carry them, so I added the store to the survey.  That addition also helps the bomber sale price numbers, since if you buy 6 bombers at Pearl, you get a 10% discount.

Look for the next PBPI around the fall equinox.

Full Sail Imperial Porter

I've stashed my case in the basement, so now I'm going to share with you one of the best beer bargains in Oregon at this time of year:  Full Sail's Imperial Porter (on the right in the photo -- I'll talk about the beer on the left in a minute).  It's under $5 a bomber ($4.25 at Beermongers), and a nice hearty beer to drink right now, but cellar it for a year or so, and you'll have a great beer for any occasion.  It's on the shelves now -- I highly recommend it.  Fresh, there's an angular bitterness to it; it's pretty dry, with very roasty malts and 60 IBUs of hops.  After mellowing out for a year, it gets a little smoother, the flavors meld together, and the chocolate/coffee flavors of the double porter come to the fore.  $4.25 + 365 days = delicious.

The beer in the glass in the photo is actually not the 2011 Imperial Porter I'm praising in this post.  It's the 2010 Top Sail, which is the 2009 Imperial Porter, aged in bourbon barrels for a year before bottling.  Tonight I cracked open a bottle I had in the basement, and it's a boozy, vanilla-y thing of beauty.  I recall it being ready to drink as soon as it was bottled last year, and I can't say that I think its time in my cellar added anything, though it hasn't suffered either.  Here's the thing: when you buy the foil-topped barrel-aged bottle, it's more than twice the price of the fresh porter -- usually at least $11.  It is a fair amount stronger in alcohol at 9.9% ABV vs. 7.5% -- is that due to evaporation/fermentation in the barrel? added bourbon? -- and definitely gains some interest from the bourbon flavors.  Also recommended, but not twice as recommended as the un-barreled one, especially if you give the cheap one a year to age.

As you may know, Full Sail alternates years between releases of the Brewer's Reserve Imperial Porter and the Imperial Stout.  This allows them to barrel-age part of the batch for a year, so in even-numbered years a barrel-aged porter and fresh stout are bottled; in odd-numbered years a barrel-aged stout and fresh porter are bottled.  When I was buying my case at Beermongers, Josh pointed out to me that's another good reason to stock up on this year's porter -- so you can compare it to the barrel-aged version next year.  The barrel-aged ones get special names:  Top Sail (porter) and Black Gold (stout), though apparently in 2007 (and before?) the unaged porter may have also been called Top Sail, judging from this old Beer Advocate page.

For some reason, Full Sail's Imperial Stout -- aged or no -- doesn't grab me like the porter does.  Oh, it's good, but the porter always seems rounder and more chocolatey to me.  Look for it now, and stock up.

Portland Beer Price Index: Spring 2011

Now that the days have once more lengthened to challenge the nights, here is the Spring 2011 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  This thing has been going for nearly two years now, so I finally can replace the squirrely graphic I've been using to label these posts with one that contains actual data from the survey: the average retail shelf price and "on-sale" price of bombers in the survey.  As always, I ask you to remember that this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's just a project to watch how prices change over time.  Click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

Here it is:

• 6-packs: $8.78, up 5 cents
• 22-ounce bombers: $5.03, up 4 cents
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.31, up 18 cents
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.95, down 3 cents
• 16 oz. draft: $4.29, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.52, unchanged

I have to admit, I haven't been to every pub in the pint-price survey all that recently.  But I don't know of any prices that have changed since last quarter.  On the retail side, this survey marks the second one in which Beer Valley's Leafer Madness has replaced Pelican IPA.  I expect to make two other changes next quarter: I'll include Ninkasi's Total Domination in the 6-pack survey, and I'll start averaging in the prices at Pearl Specialty Market, since they sell everything in the survey at pretty reasonable prices.  I'm collecting the new data for Ninkasi and Pearl this time, but not figuring it into the numbers since I can't compare them to last quarter.

Look for the next PBPI around the summer solstice.

Portland Beer Price Index: Winter 2010

A few days late, here is the Winter 2010 installment of the Portland Beer Price Index.  Please remember, this is not a rant about how expensive beer is, it's just a project to watch how prices change over time.  Click here for a full explanation of the PBPI.

It's a pretty quiet update. It doesn't appear that draft prices have changed in the pubs in the survey, and on the retail side only the sale prices fluctuated a little. One small wrinkle: for comparing this quarter's bomber prices against the last quarter's, I am throwing out Pelican IPA, which was only available at two stores in the autumn survey, but the final average price includes Pelican's replacement: Beer Valley Leafer Madness.

• 6-packs: $8.73, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers: $4.99, unchanged ($4.68 leaving out Pelican and Leafer Madness)
• 6-packs (sale price): $8.13, unchanged
• 22-ounce bombers (sale price): $4.98, down 1 cent ($4.67 vs. $4.68 leaving out Pelican and Leafer Madness)
• 16 oz. draft: $4.29, unchanged
• 16 oz. draft (happy hour): $3.52, unchanged

It's possible that Pelican IPA will return to the PBPI -- I found it at three stores this time. Only Fred Meyers failed me. So I recorded the Pelican prices as well as the Leafer Madness prices, because even though I found LM at all four places I check, a couple of months ago when I looked only two of them had it. Pelican is a delicious IPA, it contributes to the geographic diversity of the survey, and its new lower price is a piece of good news for Oregon beer lovers. If Fred's starts carrying it again, I'll reinstate it in the PBPI (maybe keeping Leafer Madness also).

The next PBPI will be out when the days and nights are next of equal length.

Cheap Growler Tip

Two years ago a chief obsession of It's Pub Night was where to get growlers filled cheaply. The price that pubs -- especially brewpubs -- charge to fill growlers is just nonsensical, when you consider the price of bottled beer. From this obsession sprung the Portland Growler Map, and also the Six-Pack Equivalent Calculator.

The Growler Map doesn't seem to get updated all that frequently these days, but John Foyston's column today in the Boregonian starts off with a place that has a great growler fill price on good northwestern beer: Plew's Brews in St. Johns fills growlers for $7. That's an SPE of $7.88 -- 25 cents below the current PBPI 6-pack sale price of $8.13. Good show, Plew's! I've added you to the map, and I'll try to make it up there with an empty growler soon.

This reminds me of another good deal, also in a less-traveled part of town. MacTarnahan's Taproom has always had cheap growler fills -- $6 was the price a couple years ago -- and now they occasionally offer a buy-one-get-one-free deal on growler fills. Follow their twitter account and watch for the BOGO announcements.

The price at Plew's makes good sense -- filling a growler should be like buying a good six-pack. Part of the reason I haven't been going on about growlers lately is that I simply don't buy them anymore, now that I've done the math and seen what a shabby deal they are. I'd rather sit and have a beer or two at a bar; if I'm taking beer home, more often than not it's a sale-price six-pack from the supermarket. If more places went with Plew's formula, growlers would take off.